AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY – EUROPEAN MARKET
EPISODE 1 (6:03 mins) European Automotive Market under pressure: BYD’s wake-up call echoes at SURCAR Europe congress
Electric mobility may be Europe’s chosen path, but Alfredo Altavilla warns the continent is cruising toward an “EV iceberg.” With infrastructure lagging and consumers unconvinced, he predicts the market could shrink to 9–10 million cars by 2035, far below today’s capacity. Altavilla’s message is stark: regulation is forcing a technology that customers haven’t yet chosen, and many legacy OEMs risk going the way of the Titanic.
Alfredo Altavilla, appointed Special Advisor for Europe last August by BYD Chairman Wong, took the floor at the special 60th anniversary of SURCAR Cannes, last Wednesday June 25th 2025 and addressed the automotive paint finishing engineering community on the future of automotive production in Europe.
A new technology is not dictated by the regulation but chosen by customers
Europe stands now at a historical moment. It has chosen electric mobility as a strategic direction, but all the policies which are meant to support the shift to electrification are becoming a roadblock to that path.
This is the first time ever that a new technology is not chosen by customers but dictated by the regulation. When we transition from 4G to 5G for our smartphones, nobody told you that from tomorrow morning you can no longer buy any 4G smartphone. It was your choice. The same happened with the transition from traditional television to 4Kto 8K. Nobody said traditional television can no longer be sold. It's your choice. You want to buy a 4K or you are an idiot like I am, that bought an 8K with no single transmission broadcast in 8K, it's your choice for when it comes to car, no. You’ve got to buy an electric car by 2035.
The problem is that the infrastructure is not ready. But first and foremost, the customer is not ready. And trust me, there is no difference between what happens today and what will happen by December 31st, 2034. Because as you are experiencing, the number of people who are actually convinced to buy an electric car, instead of growing, is lowering.
“10 million if I wake up after the Inter Milan wins a match, 9 million after the final with PSG” says A. Altavilla about the European Automotive BEV market size by 2035
The only reason why you see in some countries sales of BEV growing is because fleets are buying those cars, but they are one of the least profitable channels. So, the bottom line is, if you were to ask me to give you a number for the 2035 European market, on a good day, if I wake up after Inter Milan won a match, I can answer 10 million after the final with PSG, I would have said 9 million. So, we are looking at the future for the automotive industry in Europe, which can be as painful as it has ever been. The French market, this year, is seriously risking to close at the same level as in 1974, slightly about 1.5 million registrations.
BYD wake-up call to European OEMs: “Most of you behave like the passengers of the Titanic wearing tuxedo, drinking champagne with a ship inclined by 45 degrees, but how many of you will still be alive 10 years from now?
The future is not something to chase, it's something to build and it's not enough to adapt. We must lead the transformation, which is what at BYD we have proved to be quite good. This electric revolution can be a real threat to Europe but can be also a chance to reignite industrial capability with new tools and new alliances. At BYD, our idea is very simple: let's combine European experience with the innovation that is the most important feature at BYD. We are ready, happy, and willing to join forces and cooperate with other European OEMs. We are not the ones who want to do everything on their own, but it takes two to tango.
I find really weird that, most of the European OEMs are behaving like the passengers of the Titanic wearing tuxedo, drinking champagne with a ship inclined by 45 degrees. I don't know. I don't have the answer. How many of the current OEM will still be alive 10 years from now? I guess some of them will not. But what I know for sure, BYD is going to be one of them.
If, by 2035, we are heading towards a 10-million-unit European automotive market and not 17, how much production capacity will be redundant?
I don't want to be a player in a 10 million car market per year. I want to be a player in a 17 million car market. Although we are a leader when it comes to electric cars and electrified cars, we don't want to compete on price. We don't want to sell cars to fleet only because customers cannot afford to buy a battery vehicle. That's why I'm against the green deal. Let competition rule the game. If you ask me, I have nothing against internal combustion engines with carburetors to keep on B for sale after 2035, let's compete. The market will make a call: who wins and who lose, but the market should be there at 10 million units. Pay your guys, there is no way to make any money. This is true for OEMs, it's true for dealers and it's true for you. Just make a very stupid calculation when you're back in your office. Ask one of your junior guys to add on all the production capacities available in Europe. And if my 10 million number is true, just check how much capacity will be redundant and how many new plans can be needed.
SURCAR European congress - July 1st 2025
A brand of Infopro digital